Local government debt risk measurement and early warning structural system building — Research Based on KMV and TOPSIS Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper, by using the Statistical analysis Software SPSS20, 30 and Cities of our country’s local government structural debt risk has been carried on empirical analysis, entropy weight method to determine specific each index, reduced subjective factors influence result index distribution, expectations defaults situation comprehensive evaluation debt. By comparing size threshold value, debt, results show that in 7 provinces cities China are state no warning risk, 10 mild warning. Means State Moderate warning, other words, it means it’s time generate high most need take scientific measures
منابع مشابه
Research on the Early-Warning System of Risks in Local Government Debt
Since the economic crisis erupted in 2008, Chinese government has carried out the proactive fiscal policy and moderate looser monetary policy, which has kept down the tendency of declining economic growth. At the same time, Chinese government debt risk problem has emerged. How to manage the risk of local government debt exposure has been a major challenge to local government. This paper carried...
متن کاملGovernment Debt and Risk Premia
I document that government debt is related to risk premia in various asset markets: (i) the debt-to-GDP ratio positively predicts excess stock returns with out-of-sample R2 up to 30% at a five-year horizon, outperforming many popular predictors; (ii) the debt-to-GDP ratio is positively correlated with credit risk premia in both corporate bond excess returns and yield spreads; (iii) higher debt-...
متن کاملChina’s Local Government Debt and Economic Growth
This paper explores the impact of China’s local government debt on economic growth. This analysis, based on a panel of 31 provinces over 14 years, takes into account a broad range of economic growth determinants as well as various estimation issues including heteroskedascity and omitted variable. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between China’s local government debt and eco...
متن کاملOn the Equivalence of the KMV and Maximum Likelihood Methods for Structural Credit Risk Models
Moody’s KMV method is a popular commercial implementation of the structural credit risk model pioneered by Merton (1974). It is an algorithm for estimating the unobserved asset value and the unknown parameters required for implementing such a model. This estimation method has found its way to the recent academic literature, but it has not yet been formally analyzed to assess its statistical pro...
متن کاملInternet-based Early Warning System
Abstract iii Internet Technology is increasingly influencing the way we live and work. Homes having Internet access are becoming a norm everywhere. In the UK alone, there are nearly 8 million households with Internet access at home according to a new government figure. Internet access worldwide is growing at a rate of about 40 to 50 percent annually. Money investments in e-commerce by companies...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: E3S web of conferences
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2555-0403', '2267-1242']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202123502039